Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 33.073497 36.725200 40.815536 45.778248 51.693604 58.592832 6.736044e+01
2025-07-13 27.477369 32.212539 37.983276 45.691484 55.975852 69.634049 8.992000e+01
2025-07-20 23.941087 29.183033 35.981496 45.768344 60.104337 81.482430 1.184855e+02
2025-07-27 21.704786 27.291859 34.913986 46.606364 65.226210 96.249016 1.593286e+02
2025-08-03 19.739623 25.408088 33.446614 46.414708 68.547649 109.211400 2.058595e+02
2025-08-10 18.109069 23.747400 31.997014 45.873726 71.014781 121.504106 2.617327e+02
2025-08-17 16.915700 22.559375 31.056413 45.920871 74.458797 137.231202 3.450526e+02
2025-08-24 15.783013 21.332141 29.880625 45.323173 76.459409 150.713174 4.429218e+02
2025-08-31 14.816412 20.260505 28.817968 44.727758 78.285058 164.793314 5.743649e+02
2025-09-07 13.981569 19.317559 27.857535 44.154990 80.003888 179.699003 7.571325e+02
2025-09-14 13.278976 18.524503 27.062875 43.768118 82.051824 197.083591 1.038727e+03
2025-09-21 12.581691 17.687162 26.111058 42.929420 82.807943 210.938600 1.393079e+03
2025-09-28 12.420231 17.718936 26.693553 45.338528 92.703634 268.484486 3.339554e+03
2025-10-05 11.910554 17.136202 26.122495 45.235859 95.877498 302.393181 6.837796e+03
2025-10-12 11.469342 16.638270 25.660578 45.305206 99.638574 344.953149 2.119114e+04
2025-10-19 11.158493 16.340347 25.541211 46.128169 106.069235 414.332124 1.319443e+06
2025-10-26 10.754469 15.854184 25.020409 45.938528 109.212676 470.089161 NaN
2025-11-02 10.344867 15.334004 24.392040 45.405422 111.061072 522.016231 NaN
2025-11-09 10.028335 14.960115 24.020233 45.451732 115.093297 606.447543 NaN
2025-11-16 9.669943 14.491987 23.426352 44.863013 116.586774 673.000165 NaN
2025-11-23 9.336750 14.052615 22.860014 44.276514 117.962997 747.111322 NaN
2025-11-30 9.027882 13.642613 22.326176 43.712279 119.311217 831.336050 NaN
2025-12-07 8.755763 13.287018 21.880711 43.331142 121.382583 943.185786 NaN